A new season for politics and politicians

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Hello and welcome to the work week,

First of all thanks to Georgina for capturing the week ahead while I was taking a break with my family on the North Norfolk coast – great for holidays, bad for house hunting.

The long hot summer is coming to an end. And while solutions to the current economic and political conflicts seem far from resolved – the summer of discontent in Britain, for example, is turning into an autumn of industrial unrest – over the next seven days we will enter a new season of leadership .

The UK Conservative Party leadership elections will (finally) conclude on Monday. If retrieval of the data was not grossly inaccurate, Liz Truss will claim the award and appoint a new cabinet. The FT will provide a full analysis of these events.

Swede Magdalena Andersson hopes to be re-elected prime minister when her country goes to the polls on Sunday. Like both the outgoing and incoming British prime ministers, Andersson came to power in chaotic circumstances after her party had ruled the country for several years. Unlike the British Prime Minister, Andersson is more popular than her party and her rivals. However, this election is much closer than the Conservative Party election in the UK.

US President Joe Biden will be with the midterm elections in November in mind. The week will end with reflections for the US as the 21st anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks happens.

Another Conservative Party leadership election also ends this Saturday in Canada. The contest – which began in February with the resignation of Conservative party leader Erin O’Toole – makes Britain’s Tory leadership contest look a little rushed. But Canada’s conservatives have the luxury of taking their time, because whoever wins won’t rule the country immediately.

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economic data

The week begins with an OPEC+ meeting. Saudi Arabia warned last month it could push for an oil production cut if prices continue to fall.

The Monetary Policy Committee of the European Central Bank meets on Thursday. The fall in euro-zone unemployment over the past week has fueled speculation that the central bank will accelerate its tightening cycle to stem euro-zone inflation, which rose by 0.75 percentage points.

There are also inflation and trade figures from China, industrial production data from Germany, employment figures from Canada and international service sector comparisons with the latest purchasing manager index data. The holiday season is officially over.

Monday is Labor Day, which means US markets are closed.

companies

Apple introduces its new iPhone series.

Among those expected to deliver some pretty positive news is ash, the gear rental group. Supply chain constraints and economic uncertainty have prompted companies to lease equipment from Ashtead rather than buy it, chief executive Brendan Horgan said in June.

This is compounded by a pipeline of infrastructure projects just beginning to take shape, according to Steve Woolf of investment bank Numis. “The medium-term outlook is supported by infrastructure spending, with a significant volume of major projects set to break ground over the next 12 to 18 months,” he wrote.

Important economic and company reports

Monday

  • Austria, Opec+ meeting takes place in Vienna

  • China, Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK: Caixin/S&P Global/IHS Markit/Cips Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data

  • EU, July retail sales figures

  • Switzerland, GDP figures Q2

  • UK, Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders August vehicle registration figures.

  • Catherine Mann, Bank of England politician, addresses the Money, Macro and Finance Society conference at the University of Kent.

Tuesday

  • Australia, Monetary Policy Committee meeting

  • Chile, Monetary Policy Committee meeting

  • France, Germany, UK, US: PMI data from S&P Global Construction

  • UK, Q2 mergers and acquisitions involving UK companies

  • Results: Ashtead group Q1, Berkeley Group trading update, Cairn Energy H1, Salvatore Ferragamo H1

Wednesday

  • Apple launches the new iPhone series

  • Canada Interest Rate Announcement

  • China monthly and quarterly trade figures

  • Germany, industrial production figures for July

  • Italy, retail sales data

  • Poland, Monetary Policy Council meeting

  • UK, Halifax, Monthly House Price Index

  • USA, published latest Federal Reserve Beige Book plus consumer credit numbers. Also at the Brookings Institution, Vice Chairman Michael Barr will discuss how to make the financial system safer and fairer, his first public statements since taking office.

  • Results: Barratt developments GJ, Halbfords trading update, tods H1, WHSchmied Trading update

Thursday

  • EU, the monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank

  • France July trade numbers

  • Japan, GDP figures for Q2

  • OECD Employment Prospects

  • UK, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors Monthly Housing Market Survey and Recruitment and Employment Confederation and KPMG Monthly Jobs Report

  • US, Monthly Car Sales

  • Results: dark trail GJ, support group H1, Melrose Industries H1, The restaurant group H1

Friday

  • Canada, monthly unemployment figures

  • China Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index for August

  • UK, Bank of England Inflation Adjustment Survey

  • US quarterly financial accounts

  • Results: data center H1

world events

Monday

  • Italy, Energy Industry Conference gas tech starts in Milan

  • Lebanon, Parliament vote on the country’s next president for a six-year term

  • Russia, the country’s yearbook Eastern Economic Forum starts in Vladivostok

  • UK, new Prime Minister announced

  • UK, trial lawyers in England and Wales begin indefinite strike over the level of legal work fees

  • Britain is hearing a legal challenge to the government’s policy of sending migrants to Rwanda in the High Court. The hearing is expected to last five days.

  • UK, NHS workers in England will start vaccinating care home residents and people who are housebound this week with the first Omicron-specific Covid booster

  • USA national holiday Labor Day

Tuesday

  • Belgium, the annual meetings The Bruegel Institution event kicks off with speakers including IMF Executive Director Kristalina Georgieva

  • UK, Booker Prize Shortlisted announced

  • Swaziland, National Day commemorating independence from Britain

Wednesday

Thursday

  • UK, Royal Mail workers begin two-day strike over pay dispute

  • The 103rd season of the US National Football League begins

Friday

  • Tajikistan, National Independence Day Holiday

  • US President Joe Biden is campaigning in Ohio ahead of the midterm elections in November

Saturday

  • China, the Mid-Autumn (or Moon) Festival holiday

  • Monaco, the Les Rendez Vous de Septembre Conference, one of the largest meetings of the insurance industry, starts in Monte Carlo

  • Taiwan, Mid-Autumn (or Moon) Festival

  • UK, last night of the BBC Henry Wood Promenade Concerts aka The Proms

  • USA, Women’s Singles Final of the US Open Tennis Championship in New York

Sunday

  • Russia, regional and local elections

  • Spain, Catalonia’s National Day celebrations expected to coincide with pro-independence demonstrations

  • Sweden, Parliamentary elections for the 349 members of the Riksdag

  • USA, 21st anniversary of the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. Also Men’s Singles Finals of the US Open Tennis Championship

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